Plant pathogens and insect pests present significant threats to forest health and ecosystem function. This impact is likely exacerbated by climate change; however, forecasting the climate change-driven risks of pests remains challenging due to the inherent variability of climate impacts among regions, tree species and pest types. My research contributes to addressing this variability by incorporating the thermal mismatch between plants and pests in a Bayesian hierarchical model. We show that high-latitude forests and cold-adapted plants are likley more susceptible under climate change and develop the first atlas of future pest risks for North American forests.
